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14

2022

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07

How should egg prices go when laying hens store PK feed costs?

Category: Technical Information

In the first half of this year, the average monthly price of eggs in the main producing areas generally showed an "N"-shaped trend and was at a historically high level. Throughout the first half of this year, the increase in egg prices was mainly driven by the strong supply side, and during this period, the price was affected by the superimposed demand. Seasonal decline in February and June.

In addition, farming cost factors have further reinforced expectations of tighter supply. In the first half of the year, the average profit of a single catty of eggs was 0.47 yuan, a drop of 52.52 from the previous month. In February, there was even a small loss, which greatly affected the investment confidence, breeding confidence and replenishment confidence of the industry.

蛋鸡存栏PK饲料成本,鸡蛋价该如何走?

 

Supply side: the country's relatively low recovery in the stock of laying hens.

 

In the first half of this year, the stock of laying hens is in a slow recovery stage, but the overall level is still at the lowest level in the past five years. This is the key to the extreme value of egg prices in the first half of this year. According to monitoring data, the number of stocks on hand at the end of January was less than 1.15 billion, down 4.81 per cent from a year earlier. In the first quarter, as egg prices continued to rise, breeding profits increased, delayed elimination became the industry consensus, coupled with the constraints of transportation and logistics, the overall production capacity increased slightly. The number of stocks on hand rose to 1.181 billion at the end of June, up 3.51 per cent from the end of January and still 3.59 per cent below the average of the last five years.

蛋鸡存栏PK饲料成本,鸡蛋价该如何走?

 

Demand side: the total amount is basically stable but seasonal changes have been released.

 

Egg prices in the production area fell month-on-month in February and June, mainly due to demand-side constraints. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, school holidays and migrant workers returning to their hometowns, sales in wholesale markets and mainstream e-commerce platforms decreased in February, with a month-on-month decline of 4.02 and 50.19, respectively, and showed the characteristics of both volume and price. Before and after June, with the rise of temperature and the southern market entering the "plum rain" season, eggs are prone to quality problems. Traders, downstream processing enterprises and terminal links purchase cautiously, and the overall demand shows seasonal shrinkage. Among them, the wholesale market transaction volume and the sales volume of e-commerce platform both decreased by 4%-5% month on month.

蛋鸡存栏PK饲料成本,鸡蛋价该如何走?
蛋鸡存栏PK饲料成本,鸡蛋价该如何走?

It is worth mentioning that egg sales on a mainstream domestic e-commerce platform continued to rise in May, rising for three consecutive months. The total monthly sales volume was 3592 tons, an increase of 7.73 from the previous month, which was 1.01 percentage points higher than the month-on-month decline in the average monthly price.

 

Cost side: feed costs rise to the highest level in nearly five years

 

Another important factor that contributed to the strong rise in egg prices in the first half of this year was the cost side. Monitoring data show that as the prices of soybean meal and corn continue to be pushed up, the average feed cost per jin of eggs in the first half of this year was 3.41 yuan, up 6.90 per cent from the previous month and 2.10 per cent from the same period last year, the highest level in nearly five years. Among them, the highest average in March reached 3.56 yuan, resulting in lower-than-expected earnings. In the first half of the year, the average profit of a single catty of eggs was 0.47 yuan, a drop of 52.52 from the previous month. In February, there was even a small loss, which greatly affected the investment confidence, breeding confidence and replenishment confidence of the industry. According to the data, 836 new enterprises registered in the laying hen industry in the first half of this year, equivalent to 80% of the new half of last year, and the lowest value in the past five years.

蛋鸡存栏PK饲料成本,鸡蛋价该如何走?

 

In the second half of the year, supply and demand are two-way bullish on egg prices, but cost pressures remain.

 

Compared with previous years, the impact of macro factors on grain and feed such as corn and soybean meal has been deepened this year. This season, land rent, chemical fertilizer, seeds and other comprehensive planting costs have increased significantly, which has strong support for corn prices in the second half of the year; from the current point of view, the positive effect of macro factors on soybean meal in the second half of the year has weakened, and the probability of the overall downward trend of soybean meal prices has increased, but It is still at a relatively high level in the past five years.

蛋鸡存栏PK饲料成本,鸡蛋价该如何走?

 

Supply additions are limited, and the overall situation remains tight. As the temperature rises, the laying rate of laying hens declines to varying degrees, which also affects the supply of eggs. In the first half of July, the south gradually out of the plum, the southern demand gradually turned better. Food factory purchases will also gradually increase, and market demand is expected to turn from weak to strong. In terms of elimination of chickens, the number of eliminated chickens on the market in July increased slowly or after the first few. The number of newly-opened laying hens increased, and the number of eliminated hens increased slowly after being released. The supply of hens in July was higher than that in June. The supply side decreased in August and increased slightly in September. It is expected that the price of eggs will rise steadily in July, the weather will turn cooler in August, the market demand will gradually recover, and the price of eggs may rise.